Disaggregated ICT Infrastructure And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Abstract

Prior empirical literature on Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and economic growth in Nigeria heavily relies on aggregated indices, creating a critical research gap by masking the divergent macroeconomic contributions of distinct sub-sectors. This study addresses this limitation by investigating the novel, disaggregated short-run and long-run impacts of the information and creative industries on Nigerian economic growth from 2000 to 2025. Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing framework and an Error Correction Model (ECM), the sector is decomposed into Telecommunication and Information Services (TIS), Publishing (PUB), Motion Picture, Sound Recording & Music (MSM), and Broadcasting (BDC), with Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) as the dependent variable. The ARDL F-bounds test yields an F-statistic of 37.72, exceeding the 1% upper critical bound and confirming a stable long-run cointegrating relationship. The long-run levels estimation reveals that Broadcasting exerts the most dominant positive influence on macroeconomic expansion (beta = 2.718, p < 0.01), closely supported by Telecommunications (beta = 0.608, p < 0.01). Conversely, Publishing and Entertainment (MSM) exhibit negative long-run coefficients, revealing severe structural bottlenecks, high piracy rates, and suboptimal digital monetization frameworks. In the short run, the ECM indicates that Publishing operates as an immediate growth catalyst (beta = 1.073, p < 0.01). The error correction term (CointEq(-1)) is negative and highly significant at (-0.1969, p < 0.01), establishing that approximately 19.69% of short-run macroeconomic disequilibrium is corrected annually. Practically, policymakers must urgently implement robust blockchain-backed intellectual property frameworks to curb creative piracy while prioritizing public-private broadband expansion to transition short-run creative spikes into sustainable long-run economic engines.